Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Wednesday-7/15/3:17PM

Sun is beginning to peek it parts of the region. It will be interesting to see if any thunderstorms develop. The atmosphere is pretty worked over, but there's still potential for some storms to develop in a couple of more hours. Severe? Maybe a very isolated severe storm. Strong? If storms develop, strong storms seem likely. 50 MPH winds, small hail, and vivid cloud to ground lightning can be expected IF storms develop this evening.

Wednesday-7/15/2:01PM

The slight risk for severe weather has been dropped by the Storm Prediction Center. Could see some more rain and embedded thunderstorms later this afternoon into this evening, but the severe weather threat looks very low at this point.

Dry weather returns tomorrow with comfortable temperatures.

Erik will have more this evening...

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Tuesday-7/14/6:12PM

Watches now going up across the upper Midwest. The MCS is beginning to develop. This will push into our northern viewing area (Central Indiana) by about 3 or 4 AM and then sweep through the rest of the region between 5 and 10 AM. These storms are not expected to be severe.

More storms should develop tomorrow afternoon and evening. There are a few limiting factors, and this will inhibit a widespread severe weather event. However, isolated to scattered warnings are certainly still possible. If severe storms do develop, the best threat will be damaging winds. Large hail will be the secondary threat. The tornado threat is fairly small.

I or Erik will update later tonight...

Tuesday/1:13PM

Rest of this afternoon and evening will stay dry, but that looks to change as we head into the overnight hours.

A cold front will be sagging to the south later tonight and with it an MCS (Multi Convective System) will develop and push through the region during the early morning hours (between 3-9AM).

Storms shouldn't be severe, as by this time, the instability should be at a minimum.

However, this will change as we head into the afternoon. Storms will redevelop to the north and east of the region then drop south and southeast. Severe parameters do indicate severe weather is definetly a possibility. Widespread severe weather, probably not. Scattered severe weather, likely. Upper air features do support a few supercells with the potential for large hail and an isolated tornado or two, but the main threat from these storms will be damaging winds. Limiting factor will be instability. Morning Storms/cloud cover expected to limit instability quite a bit. This is what will inhibit widespread severe weather from developing. Timing looks to be mid to late afternoon for those in the western/northern portions of the viewing area, and early evening for those in the eastern/southern portion of the viewing area. Me or Erik will be LIVE on www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather IF and WHEN severe weather watches or warnings are issued for the area. (THE LATEST SPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION ARE
BELOW)

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Tomorrow


SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY-Tomorrow

SPC SAYS: SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE REMNANT EML WILL LIKELY ADVECT EWD ABOVE AXIS OF MOIST ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BUT VEERING AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CAP ASSOCIATED WITH ERN EXTENTION OF THE EML COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR STORM INITIATION/COVERAGE ALONG FRONT. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...SUFFICIENT WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
Prepared by: Student Meteorologist Patrick Sumner

Monday, July 13, 2009

Monday/3:15PM

Today is a beautiful day! Get out there and enjoy it!

Not to much to talk about weatherwise, at least for today.

Showers and storms will return by Wednesday. I'll have more on that later this evening...everyone have a good afternoon!

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Saturday/10:51PM

Most of the rain/storms were over Central/Northern Indiana and Central/Southern Illinois today. Most of it weakened as it headed this way. Good call on Erik's part yesterday for not calling for much severe weather. There were some limiting factors, and most days one factor missing can limit an outbreak of severe weather or any at all. Today, there were a couple, but the biggest was the rain/cloud debris that inhibited the atmosphere from destabilizing.

Storms tomorrow should stay mainly south of the Ohio River, and yes, there could be an isolated severe storm or two, but I don't see the parameters coming together for a "major" severe weather event. However, as with any storm, cloud to ground lightning, and heavy rain will be likely. If you live from the Ohio River on north, you should stay dry tomorrow, and in fact, sunshine looks to be the rule tomorrow for this area. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out later in the afternoon, but again, the more widespread activity will stay south of the Ohio River.

Erik will have your 7 day forecast sometime tomorrow. I will also have our next trivia question...have a God blessed night!

Saturday/1:18PM

The SLIGHT RISK for severe weather has been lifted for most of the region. Lot's of cloud debris has inhibited ample destabilization. So, showers and thunderstorms, yes, severe thunderstorms, probably not.

Could see some pretty heavy rains with the storms that develop. And as always cloud to ground lightning will be a threat with any thunderstorm that develops.

Storms may hang around tomorrow as well as the front meanders near the region. More on that later...have a God blessed afternoon!

SATURDAY MORNING

Let's get down to business, we have a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for today. As I Said yesterday, I DO NOT agree with the drawing of it. If it was me drawing it, I would draw it from Seymour and Vincennes north to around Ft. Wayne. We have to have winds around at least 30kts for anything to be justified in the Kentuckiana area, and I really don't see it because we are only at a 15% Wind Chance and 15% hail chance. So for the ones who read this in Seymour and points north, keep a real close eye to the sky today. So for Seymour, and points north, I am going to go with agree with the Storm Prediction Center and say SLIGHT risk of severe weather. For places around Clarksville/Louisville area. I am going to say just a chance of t-storms. Nothing real severe.


CHECK OUT WHAT IS FORMING OUT IN THE ATLANTIC: T.S. CARLOS. HERE IS THE LASTEST INFORMATION ON HIM"

THIS BRINGS ME INTO THE 7 DAY FORECAST

If anything should break, Patrick will be on livestream.com/southernindianaweather for more info. Then join me tonight for a wrapup of the days events. Til the next time, Keep an eye to the sky!

-E.D.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Friday/6:24PM

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Showers and storms possible overnight***

I am back from orientation at Vincennes University. It was a great day, with some confusion, and lot's of tiredness. I am really excited to get there and get going. If anyone is interested, I am majoring in broadcasting and plan to get an A.A.S. degree then transfer to either Purdue or Ball State to obtain a meteorology degree. Erik actually attends Vincennes as well. This will be his second year there.

Showers and thunderstorms have developed east and southeast of Indianapolis. Some of these storms have decided to act up a bit this afternoon, and a few have gone severe. Could see some more showers and thunderstorms overnight, especially over Northern and Central/South Central Indiana. Currently, no warnings or watches are in affect, but that is expected to change tomorrow...

Fairly good set-up for severe weather tomorrow, with SBCAPE ranging from 2500-3000 j/kg, dew points in the lower 70's, and ample moisture will be available. (LATEST SPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION BELOW)

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Saturday

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY-Saturday
SPC SAYS: AMIDST LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...RELATIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY /2500-3500 J PER KG SBCAPE/ IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. EARLY DAY STORMS COULD PERSIST/GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL/WESTERN PERIPHERAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY...ALONG THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE AMIDST A RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND PERTURBED NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
PATRICK SAYS: Rough day seems looks to be on the way tomorrow. Kentuckiana seems to be the bullseye with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 j/kg, ample moisture, and very unstable airmass. Damaging winds in excess of 70 MPH, and large hail up to golf balls can be expected with some of the strongest storms. I would not be suprised to see several bowing structures tomorrow. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but again, damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. Me and Erik will be covering the severe weather situation. Timing of the storms looks to be the afternoon and evening. We will be LIVE at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather when severe weather develops, or if watches or warnings are issued. I will also be updating on twitter and the blog as much as possible tomorrow...stay tuned!

BRING ON THE RAIN!

TGIF!!! Patrick is in Vincennes today, so I am at the helm all day. I apologize for not being on here any this week. Work basically got the worst of me this week. Anyway, back to the weather.

Here is the outlook for tomorrow:
and notice that the majority of Indiana is under this risk. Here are the details for tomorrow:


Right now on radar, as of 8:11, clean sweep. Where are we going, is where the rain is at now, in Iowa. The problem is the front is going to sag in our area and stop, which really, is not. Clouds will follow in today, which means we will go from sunny, to partly cloudy. Temps right now, are in the 70's. Dew points are in the mid 60's, and as you know based on me talking on here, Dew points in the mid 60's, is not comfortable, dew points in the 70's, is not comfortable whatsoever. Now, let's break down the forecast: Pop-up showers across the tri-state starting today, THIS DOES NOT MEAN EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN. Tomorrow, the cold front will start to make it's way in, and rain and possibly t-storms will be in the area. Now, the storms prediction center has posted us under a SLIGHT risk of severe for tomorrow. I DO NOT agree with the drawing of it. I would draw it from Seymour and Vincennes north to around Ft. Wayne, We will see rain tomorrow, but to really do anything, we have to have winds around at least 30kts for anything to be justified.

More to come later

-E.D.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Tuesday/1:23PM

Don't have to much time. Going into work early today.

Only a very isolated shot at a thunderstorm the rest of the afternoon. Otherwise, sunny skies, and temperatures in the middle 80' s region wide will rule for the rest of the afternoon.

HOT! That will be a popular word by late week. Temperatures will rocket into the upper 80's tomorrow into Thursday, with fairly high dew points. The hottest day will come Friday with temperatures in the lower 90's north and middle 90's south! All in all, SUMMER IS BACK!

Shower and thunderstorm activity returns for the weekend. More on that later this evening...everyone have a God blessed afternoon!

-Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner

Tuesday/12:01AM

Sorry, I have been very busy the past few days and haven't been able to update the blog. Not a long post tonight, but do know this, much warmer temperatures are in the forecast tomorrow and the rest of the week. I'll let you know the exact forecast and if their are any severe weather chances in the future...have a God blessed night!

Saturday, July 4, 2009

4th of July Forecast

4th OF JULY TIMELINE


Well, I hope you shot off your fireworks last night because looks like Mother Nature might have a fireworks show of her own. I was reading these this morning and found them interesting that they are pointing towards severe weather, so I thought I would post these on here!

STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS:
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION EARLY. HOWEVER...BY MID AFTERNOON ALINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.BY MID EVENING...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION.THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.

STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE:
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER AT ANY TIME TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER TONIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK FROM THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS A SQUALL LINE ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGH RIVER LAKE TO LAKE CUMBERLAND. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NEAR ROUGH RIVER AROUND 7 PM CDT TO NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND BY 11 PM CDT...DURING THE TIME FRAME MANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ARE SCHEDULED.

Independence Day/12:31AM

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE!!!!


As Erik mentioned in the last post, several bouts of showers and thunderstorms are on the way tomorrow, and some isolated severe weather is looking fairly likely. I am as upset as you are about the rain, as our church was hosting an event tomorrow, and so far, it's not looking to good.

Please keep it tuned here tomorrow for the latest weather information. I will be updating the blog as much as possible and going LIVE IF severe weather does develop on www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather Please feel free to leave comments or questions in the little chat box on the right side of your screen!

Everyone have a God blessed night!

Friday, July 3, 2009

Friday Morning Update/Chicken & Chi-Chi's

TGIF!!!! To celebrate this weekend, I have to put this in here. This commercial is by far the craziest commercial out there. It is even funnier when my little brother mocks the commercial! Check it out!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=db72pHYH9_c


I want to go ahead and copy and paste this. This is the HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK from the National Weather Service!

COUNTIES THIS PERTAINS TO: CARROLL, WARREN, TIPPECANOE, CLINTON, HOWARD, FOUNTAIN, MONTGOMERY, BOONE, TIPTON, HAMILTON, MADISON, DELAWARE, RANDOLPH, VERMILLION, PARKE, PUTNAM, HENDRICKS, MARION, HANCOCK, HENRY, VIGO, CLAY, OWEN, MORGAN, JOHNSON, SHELBY, RUSH, SULLIVAN, GREENE, MONROE, BROWN, BARTHOLOMEW, DECATUR, KNOX, DAVIESS, MARTIN, LAWRENCE, JACKSON and JENNINGS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
SO HERE IS OUR STORM THREAT FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW:
TODAY:

TOMORROW:

Notice the SLIGHT risk of severe weather in our area for tomorrow. This is something that we are going to monitor tomorrow. Patrick will be at the helm tomorrow since I will be out of town.

ANYWAY, For the weather maps:



COMFORT INDEX FOR TODAY



4th of July Forecast


HAVE A FUN, AND SAFE 4th OF JULY!!

-E.D.

FORECAST PREPARED BY: ERIK DEAN ON JULY 3rd, 2009 @8:08 PM

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Thursday/11:57AM

We will not be doing weather updates at 11AM, 2PM, or 5PM anymore. Its just to hard to keep track of those times and when we need to be on. However, we will still be doing weather updates LIVE during significant severe weather events which you can see us on at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather

The answer to yesterdays trivia question was...D. No one got it right, but you will have a chance to redeem yourself at the end of this post.

Still waiting for Erik to get me those weather stoplights...

Another beautiful day today, and a tad bit warmer with some sunshine peeking through the clouds. Highs today across the region will top out in the middle to upper 70's and lows tonight will be in the upper 50's to lower 60's.

We will maintain a dry forecast right until, yes, the 4th of July. An MCS will develop to our northwest and will track across portions of our viewing area. Where exactly is still very sketchy. It is very difficult to track MCS's until they form, so this we will have to keep an eye on. Right now it would seem most of Kentucky will have the best potential for shower and thunderstorm activity. But, again, things could change so keep it tuned right here on the blog for the latest weather information.

WEATHER TRIVIA TIME!
What is the phenomenon in which rain evaporates before it reaches the ground?
A) Virga
B) Streakus
C) Evaporatus
D) Floccus
Good luck!

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Wednesday/11:51 AM

WEATHER TRIVIA IS BACK! I WILL POST A TRIVIA QUESTION AFTER EVERY POST. IF YOU GET IT RIGHT...WE'LL ANNOUNCE YOUR NAME (ONLY YOUR FIRST NAME) ON THE BLOG AND YOU CAN HAVE BRAGGING RIGHTS AS WELL!

I got up early this morning, and it was actually fairly chilly! Lows last night dropped into the upper 50's north (South Central Indiana) and lower 60's south. (Southern Indiana, Kentucky) Mostly cloudy skies will rule for most of the day today, with only a few peeks of sunshine possible. Lows tonight will be even cooler than last night with middle 50's north and upper 50's south.

Now rain chances are very minimal at least through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will return just in time for 4th of July festivities. Storms will develop along a warm front, so some of these could pack a punch IF at least marginal to moderate instability can be realized. Remember if severe weather does develop on Independence Day or any other day me or Erik or both of us will be LIVE at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather

WEATHER TRIVIA TIME!

What is the sudden change in horizontal or vertical wind speed or direction, over a short distance?

A) Vortex
B) Doldrums
C) Jet Stream
D) Wind Shear

Good luck!