AUGUST 10, 2009

HOPEFULLY I can still try to keep this up to date. Starting in the late part of this month, this will switch to more of an emphasis on the Wabash Valley.


FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK WHITE AND
MUSCATATUCK RIVERS. FLOODING WILL DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
WHITE RIVER.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

BACK TO KENTUCKIANA WEATHER

Me and Erik have had quite a bit of trouble updating the blog together. Its not his fault. We just haven't made enough time, or haven't had enough time. Due to this I'm going back to my original blog..."KENTUCKIANA WEATHER". As you know, this use to be my blog and I updated on nearly a regular basis before I began to "slack off". I promise to not do this again, that doesn't mean I will update daily, but at least every 2 days.

This is NOT a new blog. However, this is where I now plan on doing weather updates. You can catch this blog by going to http://www.kentuckianaweather.blogspot.com/

Wednesday-7/15/3:17PM

Sun is beginning to peek it parts of the region. It will be interesting to see if any thunderstorms develop. The atmosphere is pretty worked over, but there's still potential for some storms to develop in a couple of more hours. Severe? Maybe a very isolated severe storm. Strong? If storms develop, strong storms seem likely. 50 MPH winds, small hail, and vivid cloud to ground lightning can be expected IF storms develop this evening.

Wednesday-7/15/2:01PM

The slight risk for severe weather has been dropped by the Storm Prediction Center. Could see some more rain and embedded thunderstorms later this afternoon into this evening, but the severe weather threat looks very low at this point.

Dry weather returns tomorrow with comfortable temperatures.

Erik will have more this evening...

Tuesday-7/14/6:12PM

Watches now going up across the upper Midwest. The MCS is beginning to develop. This will push into our northern viewing area (Central Indiana) by about 3 or 4 AM and then sweep through the rest of the region between 5 and 10 AM. These storms are not expected to be severe.

More storms should develop tomorrow afternoon and evening. There are a few limiting factors, and this will inhibit a widespread severe weather event. However, isolated to scattered warnings are certainly still possible. If severe storms do develop, the best threat will be damaging winds. Large hail will be the secondary threat. The tornado threat is fairly small.

I or Erik will update later tonight...

Tuesday/1:13PM

Rest of this afternoon and evening will stay dry, but that looks to change as we head into the overnight hours.

A cold front will be sagging to the south later tonight and with it an MCS (Multi Convective System) will develop and push through the region during the early morning hours (between 3-9AM).

Storms shouldn't be severe, as by this time, the instability should be at a minimum.

However, this will change as we head into the afternoon. Storms will redevelop to the north and east of the region then drop south and southeast. Severe parameters do indicate severe weather is definetly a possibility. Widespread severe weather, probably not. Scattered severe weather, likely. Upper air features do support a few supercells with the potential for large hail and an isolated tornado or two, but the main threat from these storms will be damaging winds. Limiting factor will be instability. Morning Storms/cloud cover expected to limit instability quite a bit. This is what will inhibit widespread severe weather from developing. Timing looks to be mid to late afternoon for those in the western/northern portions of the viewing area, and early evening for those in the eastern/southern portion of the viewing area. Me or Erik will be LIVE on www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather IF and WHEN severe weather watches or warnings are issued for the area. (THE LATEST SPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION ARE

BELOW)

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Tomorrow

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY-Tomorrow

SPC SAYS: SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE REMNANT EML WILL LIKELY ADVECT EWD ABOVE AXIS OF MOIST ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BUT VEERING AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CAP ASSOCIATED WITH ERN EXTENTION OF THE EML COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR STORM INITIATION/COVERAGE ALONG FRONT. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...SUFFICIENT WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

Prepared by: Student Meteorologist Patrick Sumner

Monday/3:15PM

Today is a beautiful day! Get out there and enjoy it!

Not to much to talk about weatherwise, at least for today.

Showers and storms will return by Wednesday. I'll have more on that later this evening...everyone have a good afternoon!

Saturday/10:51PM

Most of the rain/storms were over Central/Northern Indiana and Central/Southern Illinois today. Most of it weakened as it headed this way. Good call on Erik's part yesterday for not calling for much severe weather. There were some limiting factors, and most days one factor missing can limit an outbreak of severe weather or any at all. Today, there were a couple, but the biggest was the rain/cloud debris that inhibited the atmosphere from destabilizing.

Storms tomorrow should stay mainly south of the Ohio River, and yes, there could be an isolated severe storm or two, but I don't see the parameters coming together for a "major" severe weather event. However, as with any storm, cloud to ground lightning, and heavy rain will be likely. If you live from the Ohio River on north, you should stay dry tomorrow, and in fact, sunshine looks to be the rule tomorrow for this area. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out later in the afternoon, but again, the more widespread activity will stay south of the Ohio River.

Erik will have your 7 day forecast sometime tomorrow. I will also have our next trivia question...have a God blessed night!

Saturday/1:18PM

The SLIGHT RISK for severe weather has been lifted for most of the region. Lot's of cloud debris has inhibited ample destabilization. So, showers and thunderstorms, yes, severe thunderstorms, probably not.

Could see some pretty heavy rains with the storms that develop. And as always cloud to ground lightning will be a threat with any thunderstorm that develops.

Storms may hang around tomorrow as well as the front meanders near the region. More on that later...have a God blessed afternoon!

SATURDAY MORNING

Let's get down to business, we have a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for today. As I Said yesterday, I DO NOT agree with the drawing of it. If it was me drawing it, I would draw it from Seymour and Vincennes north to around Ft. Wayne. We have to have winds around at least 30kts for anything to be justified in the Kentuckiana area, and I really don't see it because we are only at a 15% Wind Chance and 15% hail chance. So for the ones who read this in Seymour and points north, keep a real close eye to the sky today. So for Seymour, and points north, I am going to go with agree with the Storm Prediction Center and say SLIGHT risk of severe weather. For places around Clarksville/Louisville area. I am going to say just a chance of t-storms. Nothing real severe.


CHECK OUT WHAT IS FORMING OUT IN THE ATLANTIC: T.S. CARLOS. HERE IS THE LASTEST INFORMATION ON HIM"

THIS BRINGS ME INTO THE 7 DAY FORECAST

If anything should break, Patrick will be on livestream.com/southernindianaweather for more info. Then join me tonight for a wrapup of the days events. Til the next time, Keep an eye to the sky!

-E.D.

Friday/6:24PM

WEATHER CODE: YELLOW ***Showers and storms possible overnight***

I am back from orientation at Vincennes University. It was a great day, with some confusion, and lot's of tiredness. I am really excited to get there and get going. If anyone is interested, I am majoring in broadcasting and plan to get an A.A.S. degree then transfer to either Purdue or Ball State to obtain a meteorology degree. Erik actually attends Vincennes as well. This will be his second year there.

Showers and thunderstorms have developed east and southeast of Indianapolis. Some of these storms have decided to act up a bit this afternoon, and a few have gone severe. Could see some more showers and thunderstorms overnight, especially over Northern and Central/South Central Indiana. Currently, no warnings or watches are in affect, but that is expected to change tomorrow...

Fairly good set-up for severe weather tomorrow, with SBCAPE ranging from 2500-3000 j/kg, dew points in the lower 70's, and ample moisture will be available. (LATEST SPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION BELOW)

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Saturday

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY-Saturday

SPC SAYS: AMIDST LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...RELATIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY /2500-3500 J PER KG SBCAPE/ IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. EARLY DAY STORMS COULD PERSIST/GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL/WESTERN PERIPHERAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY...ALONG THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE AMIDST A RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND PERTURBED NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

PATRICK SAYS: Rough day seems looks to be on the way tomorrow. Kentuckiana seems to be the bullseye with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 j/kg, ample moisture, and very unstable airmass. Damaging winds in excess of 70 MPH, and large hail up to golf balls can be expected with some of the strongest storms. I would not be suprised to see several bowing structures tomorrow. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but again, damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. Me and Erik will be covering the severe weather situation. Timing of the storms looks to be the afternoon and evening. We will be LIVE at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather when severe weather develops, or if watches or warnings are issued. I will also be updating on twitter and the blog as much as possible tomorrow...stay tuned!

BRING ON THE RAIN!

TGIF!!! Patrick is in Vincennes today, so I am at the helm all day. I apologize for not being on here any this week. Work basically got the worst of me this week. Anyway, back to the weather.

Here is the outlook for tomorrow:
and notice that the majority of Indiana is under this risk. Here are the details for tomorrow:


Right now on radar, as of 8:11, clean sweep. Where are we going, is where the rain is at now, in Iowa. The problem is the front is going to sag in our area and stop, which really, is not. Clouds will follow in today, which means we will go from sunny, to partly cloudy. Temps right now, are in the 70's. Dew points are in the mid 60's, and as you know based on me talking on here, Dew points in the mid 60's, is not comfortable, dew points in the 70's, is not comfortable whatsoever. Now, let's break down the forecast: Pop-up showers across the tri-state starting today, THIS DOES NOT MEAN EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN. Tomorrow, the cold front will start to make it's way in, and rain and possibly t-storms will be in the area. Now, the storms prediction center has posted us under a SLIGHT risk of severe for tomorrow. I DO NOT agree with the drawing of it. I would draw it from Seymour and Vincennes north to around Ft. Wayne, We will see rain tomorrow, but to really do anything, we have to have winds around at least 30kts for anything to be justified.

More to come later

-E.D.

Tuesday/1:23PM

Don't have to much time. Going into work early today.

Only a very isolated shot at a thunderstorm the rest of the afternoon. Otherwise, sunny skies, and temperatures in the middle 80' s region wide will rule for the rest of the afternoon.

HOT! That will be a popular word by late week. Temperatures will rocket into the upper 80's tomorrow into Thursday, with fairly high dew points. The hottest day will come Friday with temperatures in the lower 90's north and middle 90's south! All in all, SUMMER IS BACK!

Shower and thunderstorm activity returns for the weekend. More on that later this evening...everyone have a God blessed afternoon!

-Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner

Tuesday/12:01AM

Sorry, I have been very busy the past few days and haven't been able to update the blog. Not a long post tonight, but do know this, much warmer temperatures are in the forecast tomorrow and the rest of the week. I'll let you know the exact forecast and if their are any severe weather chances in the future...have a God blessed night!

4th of July Forecast

4th OF JULY TIMELINE


Well, I hope you shot off your fireworks last night because looks like Mother Nature might have a fireworks show of her own. I was reading these this morning and found them interesting that they are pointing towards severe weather, so I thought I would post these on here!

STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS:
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION EARLY. HOWEVER...BY MID AFTERNOON ALINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.BY MID EVENING...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION.THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.

STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE:
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER AT ANY TIME TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER TONIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK FROM THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS A SQUALL LINE ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGH RIVER LAKE TO LAKE CUMBERLAND. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NEAR ROUGH RIVER AROUND 7 PM CDT TO NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND BY 11 PM CDT...DURING THE TIME FRAME MANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ARE SCHEDULED.

Independence Day/12:31AM

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE!!!!

As Erik mentioned in the last post, several bouts of showers and thunderstorms are on the way tomorrow, and some isolated severe weather is looking fairly likely. I am as upset as you are about the rain, as our church was hosting an event tomorrow, and so far, it's not looking to good.

Please keep it tuned here tomorrow for the latest weather information. I will be updating the blog as much as possible and going LIVE IF severe weather does develop on www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather Please feel free to leave comments or questions in the little chat box on the right side of your screen!

Everyone have a God blessed night!

Friday Morning Update/Chicken & Chi-Chi's

TGIF!!!! To celebrate this weekend, I have to put this in here. This commercial is by far the craziest commercial out there. It is even funnier when my little brother mocks the commercial! Check it out!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=db72pHYH9_c

I want to go ahead and copy and paste this. This is the HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK from the National Weather Service!

COUNTIES THIS PERTAINS TO: CARROLL, WARREN, TIPPECANOE, CLINTON, HOWARD, FOUNTAIN, MONTGOMERY, BOONE, TIPTON, HAMILTON, MADISON, DELAWARE, RANDOLPH, VERMILLION, PARKE, PUTNAM, HENDRICKS, MARION, HANCOCK, HENRY, VIGO, CLAY, OWEN, MORGAN, JOHNSON, SHELBY, RUSH, SULLIVAN, GREENE, MONROE, BROWN, BARTHOLOMEW, DECATUR, KNOX, DAVIESS, MARTIN, LAWRENCE, JACKSON and JENNINGS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
SO HERE IS OUR STORM THREAT FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW:
TODAY:

TOMORROW:

Notice the SLIGHT risk of severe weather in our area for tomorrow. This is something that we are going to monitor tomorrow. Patrick will be at the helm tomorrow since I will be out of town.

ANYWAY, For the weather maps:



COMFORT INDEX FOR TODAY



4th of July Forecast


HAVE A FUN, AND SAFE 4th OF JULY!!

-E.D.

FORECAST PREPARED BY: ERIK DEAN ON JULY 3rd, 2009 @8:08 PM

Thursday/11:57AM

We will not be doing weather updates at 11AM, 2PM, or 5PM anymore. Its just to hard to keep track of those times and when we need to be on. However, we will still be doing weather updates LIVE during significant severe weather events which you can see us on at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather

The answer to yesterdays trivia question was...D. No one got it right, but you will have a chance to redeem yourself at the end of this post.

Still waiting for Erik to get me those weather stoplights...

Another beautiful day today, and a tad bit warmer with some sunshine peeking through the clouds. Highs today across the region will top out in the middle to upper 70's and lows tonight will be in the upper 50's to lower 60's.

We will maintain a dry forecast right until, yes, the 4th of July. An MCS will develop to our northwest and will track across portions of our viewing area. Where exactly is still very sketchy. It is very difficult to track MCS's until they form, so this we will have to keep an eye on. Right now it would seem most of Kentucky will have the best potential for shower and thunderstorm activity. But, again, things could change so keep it tuned right here on the blog for the latest weather information.

WEATHER TRIVIA TIME!

What is the phenomenon in which rain evaporates before it reaches the ground?

A) Virga

B) Streakus

C) Evaporatus

D) Floccus

Good luck!

Wednesday/11:51 AM

WEATHER TRIVIA IS BACK! I WILL POST A TRIVIA QUESTION AFTER EVERY POST. IF YOU GET IT RIGHT...WE'LL ANNOUNCE YOUR NAME (ONLY YOUR FIRST NAME) ON THE BLOG AND YOU CAN HAVE BRAGGING RIGHTS AS WELL!

I got up early this morning, and it was actually fairly chilly! Lows last night dropped into the upper 50's north (South Central Indiana) and lower 60's south. (Southern Indiana, Kentucky) Mostly cloudy skies will rule for most of the day today, with only a few peeks of sunshine possible. Lows tonight will be even cooler than last night with middle 50's north and upper 50's south.

Now rain chances are very minimal at least through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will return just in time for 4th of July festivities. Storms will develop along a warm front, so some of these could pack a punch IF at least marginal to moderate instability can be realized. Remember if severe weather does develop on Independence Day or any other day me or Erik or both of us will be LIVE at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather

WEATHER TRIVIA TIME!

What is the sudden change in horizontal or vertical wind speed or direction, over a short distance?

A) Vortex
B) Doldrums
C) Jet Stream
D) Wind Shear

Good luck!

TUESDAY, AT AROUND 7:10 PMish

FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS:

FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THE AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT LYING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA.
THE H5 PATTERN REMAINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SEEM TO HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL. THE BIG DIFFERENCES ARE AMONG POPS FOR TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS ON THIS ONE
CONSIDERING THAT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL SEND ANOTHER VORT MAX HEADED THIS
WAY. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT WHERE THE ENERGY IS RIGHT
NOW...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN. WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDINGS WILL NOT QUITE GO WITH THE LIKELY POPS
SHOWN ON THE NAM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS
FOR THE LAST NIGHT OF JUNE...AS THE COLD POOL SLIDES SOUTH AND
SENDS H8 TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL GIVE US LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

FOR WEDNESDAY THE COLD POOL WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
AND PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CLOUDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TOMORROW. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 1 IS 68
DEGREES. THIS IS WITHIN REACH AS WE SEE H8 TEMPS NEAR +9C WHICH
WOULD FULLY MIX TO THE LOW 70S. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDINESS THIS
RECORD COULD BE GIVEN A RUN...BUT ANY BREAKS OF SUN THIS TIME
OF YEAR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO SHOOT INTO THE 70S. WILL CONTINUE THE
LOW POPS FOR TOMORROW EXPECTING SOME COLD POOL LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT AGAIN AS THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA. THICKNESS VALUES SHOW IT SHOULD
BE A COOLER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT...AND MOS GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED IN
THE LOW 50S. ONLY THE CLOUDINESS PRESENT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING INTO THE 40S.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST AND THE
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE. EXPECTING A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX ON
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE CLOUDS...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH
OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH H8 VALUES APPROACHING +12C AGAIN
AND THIS WILL GIVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT GIVEN
THE HIGHER HEIGHTS PRESENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
SEE READINGS MORE IN THE 60S THAN 50S EXCEPT IN SOME RURAL SPOTS.

ON FRIDAY HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND H8 TEMPS WILL APPROACH
+16C IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
80S. WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY BY SATURDAY. H8 TEMPS WILL FALL
TO AROUND +13C FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. WILL MENTION CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

EXTENDED PATTERN WILL FEATURE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Tuesday/Mid Afternoon

It is another beautiful day for late June across Kentuckiana. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 70's region wide with very low humidity. Their is a VERY SLIGHT chance for a shower or thunderstorm today, but I expect most areas to stay dry.

The Climate Prediction Center has issued their monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts. (MAPS BELOW)

TEMPERATURE FORECAST-July


PRECIPITATION FORECAST-July


We'll see how these forecasts go, but I am skeptical. July is one of those months where we can see major heat waves and several large MCS's (Multi Convective Systems) that would mess up the preciptation forecasts...we shall see.

Erik should have an update for you later this evening...Have a God blessed afternoon!

Monday/Mid Afternoon

Again, not to much to talk about as far as weather is concerned. It is a boring week to be a weather forecaster/meteorologist in Kentuckiana.

Highs are currently topping out in the lower 80's with very low humidity for late June. Tomorrow will be much more of the same with even cooler temperatures. Most areas won't make it out of the 70's for highs and lows will dip into the middle and upper 50's. We can probably take a break from the air conditioner for a couple of nights!

There is a very slight chance for a storm tomorrow and Wednesday, but will be very isolated. If you do get under a storm, temperatures in the upper levels of the atmosphere are pretty cold so hail would be a good bet. More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity looks fairly likely by the weekend. Severe weather looks to be a possibility. Me and Erik will have more on this as we go through the rest of the week! Erik will be updating you this evening! Everyone have a great afternoon!

Sunday/Early Afternoon

Not to much to talk about today weatherwise! May see an isolated storm today, especially across our far southern counties in Central Kentucky, however they will be very isolated.

Otherwise, temperatures will top out in the low to middle 80's today with lower humidity. This will continue into the upcoming work week, with a fairly long stretch of dry weather expected as well.

Get out there and enjoy the weather!

FORECAST PREPARED BY: WEATHER FORECASTER PATRICK SUMNER

Saturday/Late Evening

Thanks Erik for the new stoplight system! I still have to get those loaded on my desktop, so until I do, Erik will be the only one to post the stoplight forecast.

Showers and thunderstorms currently in Central Illinois will impact our far southwestern counties after midnight, with the potential for a rumble of thunder or two. All of us will see some light showers overnight.

Tomorrow a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather has been highlighted from the Ohio River and on south. (LATEST SPC MAPS and DISCUSSION BELOW) I am not expecting a widespread severe weather event. However, isolated severe weather is fairly likely. Damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be the best threats.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Sunday


SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY-Sunday


SPC SAYS: ...UPPER OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH PORTION OF THE SERN STATES... 27/12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A RICH BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE AXIS WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY ON DAY 2. DESPITE MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-6.5 C/KM/ ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE VERY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER WITH LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE EWD AND SEWD AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR...GENERALLY FROM OH VALLEY SWD TO THE KY/TN BORDER. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD COMPENSATE AND SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THIS REGION.

FORECAST PREPARED BY: WEATHER FORECASTER PATRICK SUMNER

RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW

Ok, Patrick, when you read this, call me. I need to give you a PowerPoint File with the graphics for you to make!

Here is my Storm Threat forecast for tomorrow.


I put it in between NOT SEVERE and SLIGHT because Southern Indiana is not under a risk for anything at this moment, but from places south of Louisville is under a SLIGHT risk of severe weather.

and tomorrow's comfort index will be around a


and the reason why I put it at a 7 is because if we see any rain, it should cool things off.

Don't forget, Patrick Sumner will be on livestream.com/southernindianaweather at 8:30 PM EDT

Keep your eye to the sky!!

-E.D.

Forecast Discussion Prepared By: Student Meteorologist Erik Dean @ 7:55 PM EDT

Livestream weather update postponed until 8:30PM

HOT HOT HOT THEN COOL COOL COOL

Here is my comfort index. I was outside earlier today, and within 3 minutes of being outside, I started sweating. So, with that, plus being on a broken foot, and using my crutches today, I give today's comfort index a:


IF ANYONE IS READING THIS AND LIVES IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES, GO AHEAD AND MAKE THAT A 10: YOU GUYS ARE UNDER AN OZONE ACTION DAY: MARION, HAMILTON, BOONE, HANCOCK, SHELBY, JOHNSON, MORGAN, HENDRICKS.

Here is what an Ozone Action Day is: As taken from the NWS

AN OZONE ACTION DAY MEANS THAT A COMBINATION OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS...AND OTHER FACTORS...ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE CONDITIONS WHERE HIGH LEVELS OF OZONE EMISSIONS...MAY
EXCEED FEDERALLY MANDATED STANDARDS.

HERE ARE SOME RECOMMENDED ACTIONS THAT THE PUBLIC CAN TAKE TO REDUCE
OZONE FORMING EMISSIONS.

RIDE THE BUS INSTEAD OF TAKING YOUR CAR.
CAR-POOL WITH A FRIEND OR CO-WORKER.
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF TIME SPENT IN DRIVE THRU LANES.
POSTPONE FILLING OR TOPPING OFF YOUR GAS TANK UNTIL AFTER DARK.
PUT OFF MOWING YOUR LAWN UNTIL AFTER 600 PM.

WHICH BRINGS ME TO TOMORROW: There is a 40% Chance of Isolated Thunderstorms tomorrow. Tomorrow's high is 87. But ALAS!!!! THE COLD FRONT COMES IN!!! highs in the low 80's all week next week!!!

Have a nice weekend!!

Stay Cool

-E.D.

Forecast Prepared by: Student Meteorologist Erik Dean at 4:11 PM EDT

Saturday/Mid Morning

Just wanted to let you know how this blog is going to go. I will be updating during the morning and afternoon hours. Erik will be updating during the nighttime hours. If one of us is gone or away from the computer, the other will take over the shift. So, Erik should be updating you sometime this evening.

I don't have to long, so this will be short...

Hot day today with highs in the lower 90's. Heat indices will top 100 in some areas, with the FEEL LIKE temperature across the entire region in the upper 90's to near 100.

Shower and thunderstorm chances are pretty slim tonight. If we do see any storms, it will be after midnight.

I will be doing a LIVE update at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather around 6 o'clock! Hope to see you there!

Friday/Mid Evening

OK, this will be the last update of the night unless Erik decides to update...

WEATHER CODE for TONIGHT: NON SEVERE

Ok let me explain the new WEATHER STOPLIGHT. Above is a STORM THREAT FORECAST. We will use this for a variety of weather including winter storms, unless Erik decides to make a new one. NON SEVERE means no hazardous weather is expected and/or no severe weather is expected. The SLIGHT risk area means there is a SLIGHT risk for hazardous weather and/or a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather. The MODERATE risk area means there is a MODERATE risk for hazardous weather and/or a MODERATE risk for severe weather. The HIGH risk area means there is a HIGH risk for hazardous weather and/or a HIGH risk for severe weather. If we use the HIGH risk area, a dangerous and potentially life threatening event is possible or likely. Hopefully we won't have to use this at all...

Ok now let's talk weather for the rest of tonight and tomorrow...

Showers and thunderstorms have pretty well cleared out of the area, with only a few scattered storms left across far Southern Kentucky. Lows tonight will stay balmy with middle to upper 60's expected region wide.

Tomorrow a potent cold front will begin to dive into the Midwestern States. This will likely set off a widespread severe weather event across North Central Illinois and most of Iowa. (Latest SPC maps for tomorrow are below) These storms will make it here overnight into Sunday morning, but will be in a weakened state. So for now, I am NOT expecting any severe weather tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. However, if the cold front does speed up a bit, severe weather potential would increase. Although not much severe weather is expected, heavy rain and vivid lightning will be likely with the storms that move through. Me and Erik will keep you updated on this situation as we go through tomorrow.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Tomorrow

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY-Tomorrow

Friday/Early Evening

Doesn't look like a watch will be issued. Storms haven't really increased in coverage. There are a few warnings now for Taylor, Adair, and Greene counties in South Central Kentucky, but again these storms are very scattered. I am doing some LIVE updates at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather Im signing off and back on, so try and catch me on there! Good luck...lol.

Erik is working on a new weather stoplight system, so we'll get that up ASAP.

Friday/Early Afternoon 2

A WATCH may be issued for the entire viewing area.



SPC SAYS: STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN MO/WRN TN...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU/INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IN AND NRN/CNTRL KY. CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE WW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IS LOCATED FROM SERN MO/NERN AR INTO ERN KY AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BAND MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE OH VALLEY. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED BY DRY AIR IN MID/UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35 KT WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Friday/Mid Afternoon

To follow us on TWITTER refer to the TWITTER WEATHER UPDATES on the right side of the screen. For some reason the time is messed up and its saying showing that I updated at a later time. Its about 3 hours fast so subtract 3 hours and thats when I updated it. Thanks!

Friday/Early Afternoon

Good afternoon everyone. As Erik said in the last post, several bouts of showers and thunderstorms moved through the area earlier this morning. They are now gone, and so far, we are left with hot and humid conditions once again.

The Storm Prediction Center has continued to highlight areas that are along and south of the Ohio River in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather. I will have to agree with Erik, the set-up does NOT look good for widespread severe weather, however, an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out. Any storm that can get its act together later this afternoon will have the potential to produce damaging winds and marginally severe hail. The SPC outlook from this morning has not changed to much this afternoon. Areas north of the Ohio River will stay dry with only a very isolated shot at an evening thunderstorm.

Me and Erik will be doing live video blogging forecasts at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather everyday at 11 AM, 2, PM, and 5 PM. If significant weather is hitting the area, we will also be live. You can see a list of the videos we've done by going to the site. I just got done doing one, so check it out! We are still trying to figure this out since it is new to us, so bear with us. Thanks!

FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 11:37 AM ish

Well, TGIF to everyone. I am sure everyone has heard about the death of Singer/Songwriter Michael Jackson. If I had to pick a favorite song by him, it would have to be "Thriller." Most people in the Vincennes area will probably remember seeing me do the thriller dance on WVUT during Halloween. If not, I will try to find that video.

TIME FOR THE WEATHER:

Strong storms rolled through Southern Indiana last night and while I was asleep when this happened, I did notice some reports

HERE ARE THE STORM REPORTS FOR YESTERDAY. You will notice the majority of the wind and hail damage was around Ohio and New York, nothing really around the kentuckiana area.


HERE IS THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR TODAY

and you notice the EXTREME portions of Southern Indiana and All of Kentucky is under a slight risk of severe weather. The rest of the Kentuckiana area is under a SEE TEXT. I honestly don't agree with it. I don't think the setup is there for severe weather.

Here is your Kentuckiana Weather 7 Day Forecast


FORECAST PREPARED BY: ERIK DEAN ON JUNE 26th, 2009

Friday/Very Early Morning

Showers and thunderstorms are on the increase across Southern Indiana. Heaviest storms right now are around the Seymour, and Bedford areas. Vivid cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and very heavy rains are possible with these storms. Storms will move across the entire region into the early morning hours.

NEW BLOG

Hey everyone. This is a new weather blog that will cover specifically Indiana and Kentucky, however surrounding areas as well.

Me and weather forecaster Erik Dean will be updating as often as possible.

We will also be doing live video blogging during significant weather situations. You can watch us their by going to www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather

We are also on TWITTER... www.twitter.com/pandeweather