TUESDAY, AT AROUND 7:10 PMish

FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS:

FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THE AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT LYING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA.
THE H5 PATTERN REMAINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SEEM TO HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL. THE BIG DIFFERENCES ARE AMONG POPS FOR TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS ON THIS ONE
CONSIDERING THAT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL SEND ANOTHER VORT MAX HEADED THIS
WAY. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT WHERE THE ENERGY IS RIGHT
NOW...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN. WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDINGS WILL NOT QUITE GO WITH THE LIKELY POPS
SHOWN ON THE NAM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS
FOR THE LAST NIGHT OF JUNE...AS THE COLD POOL SLIDES SOUTH AND
SENDS H8 TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL GIVE US LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

FOR WEDNESDAY THE COLD POOL WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
AND PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CLOUDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TOMORROW. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 1 IS 68
DEGREES. THIS IS WITHIN REACH AS WE SEE H8 TEMPS NEAR +9C WHICH
WOULD FULLY MIX TO THE LOW 70S. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDINESS THIS
RECORD COULD BE GIVEN A RUN...BUT ANY BREAKS OF SUN THIS TIME
OF YEAR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO SHOOT INTO THE 70S. WILL CONTINUE THE
LOW POPS FOR TOMORROW EXPECTING SOME COLD POOL LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT AGAIN AS THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA. THICKNESS VALUES SHOW IT SHOULD
BE A COOLER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT...AND MOS GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED IN
THE LOW 50S. ONLY THE CLOUDINESS PRESENT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING INTO THE 40S.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST AND THE
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE. EXPECTING A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX ON
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE CLOUDS...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH
OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH H8 VALUES APPROACHING +12C AGAIN
AND THIS WILL GIVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT GIVEN
THE HIGHER HEIGHTS PRESENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
SEE READINGS MORE IN THE 60S THAN 50S EXCEPT IN SOME RURAL SPOTS.

ON FRIDAY HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND H8 TEMPS WILL APPROACH
+16C IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
80S. WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY BY SATURDAY. H8 TEMPS WILL FALL
TO AROUND +13C FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. WILL MENTION CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

EXTENDED PATTERN WILL FEATURE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Tuesday/Mid Afternoon

It is another beautiful day for late June across Kentuckiana. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 70's region wide with very low humidity. Their is a VERY SLIGHT chance for a shower or thunderstorm today, but I expect most areas to stay dry.

The Climate Prediction Center has issued their monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts. (MAPS BELOW)

TEMPERATURE FORECAST-July


PRECIPITATION FORECAST-July


We'll see how these forecasts go, but I am skeptical. July is one of those months where we can see major heat waves and several large MCS's (Multi Convective Systems) that would mess up the preciptation forecasts...we shall see.

Erik should have an update for you later this evening...Have a God blessed afternoon!

Monday/Mid Afternoon

Again, not to much to talk about as far as weather is concerned. It is a boring week to be a weather forecaster/meteorologist in Kentuckiana.

Highs are currently topping out in the lower 80's with very low humidity for late June. Tomorrow will be much more of the same with even cooler temperatures. Most areas won't make it out of the 70's for highs and lows will dip into the middle and upper 50's. We can probably take a break from the air conditioner for a couple of nights!

There is a very slight chance for a storm tomorrow and Wednesday, but will be very isolated. If you do get under a storm, temperatures in the upper levels of the atmosphere are pretty cold so hail would be a good bet. More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity looks fairly likely by the weekend. Severe weather looks to be a possibility. Me and Erik will have more on this as we go through the rest of the week! Erik will be updating you this evening! Everyone have a great afternoon!

Sunday/Early Afternoon

Not to much to talk about today weatherwise! May see an isolated storm today, especially across our far southern counties in Central Kentucky, however they will be very isolated.

Otherwise, temperatures will top out in the low to middle 80's today with lower humidity. This will continue into the upcoming work week, with a fairly long stretch of dry weather expected as well.

Get out there and enjoy the weather!

FORECAST PREPARED BY: WEATHER FORECASTER PATRICK SUMNER

Saturday/Late Evening

Thanks Erik for the new stoplight system! I still have to get those loaded on my desktop, so until I do, Erik will be the only one to post the stoplight forecast.

Showers and thunderstorms currently in Central Illinois will impact our far southwestern counties after midnight, with the potential for a rumble of thunder or two. All of us will see some light showers overnight.

Tomorrow a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather has been highlighted from the Ohio River and on south. (LATEST SPC MAPS and DISCUSSION BELOW) I am not expecting a widespread severe weather event. However, isolated severe weather is fairly likely. Damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be the best threats.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Sunday


SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY-Sunday


SPC SAYS: ...UPPER OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH PORTION OF THE SERN STATES... 27/12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A RICH BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE AXIS WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY ON DAY 2. DESPITE MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-6.5 C/KM/ ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE VERY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER WITH LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE EWD AND SEWD AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR...GENERALLY FROM OH VALLEY SWD TO THE KY/TN BORDER. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD COMPENSATE AND SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THIS REGION.

FORECAST PREPARED BY: WEATHER FORECASTER PATRICK SUMNER

RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW

Ok, Patrick, when you read this, call me. I need to give you a PowerPoint File with the graphics for you to make!

Here is my Storm Threat forecast for tomorrow.


I put it in between NOT SEVERE and SLIGHT because Southern Indiana is not under a risk for anything at this moment, but from places south of Louisville is under a SLIGHT risk of severe weather.

and tomorrow's comfort index will be around a


and the reason why I put it at a 7 is because if we see any rain, it should cool things off.

Don't forget, Patrick Sumner will be on livestream.com/southernindianaweather at 8:30 PM EDT

Keep your eye to the sky!!

-E.D.

Forecast Discussion Prepared By: Student Meteorologist Erik Dean @ 7:55 PM EDT

Livestream weather update postponed until 8:30PM

HOT HOT HOT THEN COOL COOL COOL

Here is my comfort index. I was outside earlier today, and within 3 minutes of being outside, I started sweating. So, with that, plus being on a broken foot, and using my crutches today, I give today's comfort index a:


IF ANYONE IS READING THIS AND LIVES IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES, GO AHEAD AND MAKE THAT A 10: YOU GUYS ARE UNDER AN OZONE ACTION DAY: MARION, HAMILTON, BOONE, HANCOCK, SHELBY, JOHNSON, MORGAN, HENDRICKS.

Here is what an Ozone Action Day is: As taken from the NWS

AN OZONE ACTION DAY MEANS THAT A COMBINATION OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS...AND OTHER FACTORS...ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE CONDITIONS WHERE HIGH LEVELS OF OZONE EMISSIONS...MAY
EXCEED FEDERALLY MANDATED STANDARDS.

HERE ARE SOME RECOMMENDED ACTIONS THAT THE PUBLIC CAN TAKE TO REDUCE
OZONE FORMING EMISSIONS.

RIDE THE BUS INSTEAD OF TAKING YOUR CAR.
CAR-POOL WITH A FRIEND OR CO-WORKER.
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF TIME SPENT IN DRIVE THRU LANES.
POSTPONE FILLING OR TOPPING OFF YOUR GAS TANK UNTIL AFTER DARK.
PUT OFF MOWING YOUR LAWN UNTIL AFTER 600 PM.

WHICH BRINGS ME TO TOMORROW: There is a 40% Chance of Isolated Thunderstorms tomorrow. Tomorrow's high is 87. But ALAS!!!! THE COLD FRONT COMES IN!!! highs in the low 80's all week next week!!!

Have a nice weekend!!

Stay Cool

-E.D.

Forecast Prepared by: Student Meteorologist Erik Dean at 4:11 PM EDT

Saturday/Mid Morning

Just wanted to let you know how this blog is going to go. I will be updating during the morning and afternoon hours. Erik will be updating during the nighttime hours. If one of us is gone or away from the computer, the other will take over the shift. So, Erik should be updating you sometime this evening.

I don't have to long, so this will be short...

Hot day today with highs in the lower 90's. Heat indices will top 100 in some areas, with the FEEL LIKE temperature across the entire region in the upper 90's to near 100.

Shower and thunderstorm chances are pretty slim tonight. If we do see any storms, it will be after midnight.

I will be doing a LIVE update at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather around 6 o'clock! Hope to see you there!

Friday/Mid Evening

OK, this will be the last update of the night unless Erik decides to update...

WEATHER CODE for TONIGHT: NON SEVERE

Ok let me explain the new WEATHER STOPLIGHT. Above is a STORM THREAT FORECAST. We will use this for a variety of weather including winter storms, unless Erik decides to make a new one. NON SEVERE means no hazardous weather is expected and/or no severe weather is expected. The SLIGHT risk area means there is a SLIGHT risk for hazardous weather and/or a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather. The MODERATE risk area means there is a MODERATE risk for hazardous weather and/or a MODERATE risk for severe weather. The HIGH risk area means there is a HIGH risk for hazardous weather and/or a HIGH risk for severe weather. If we use the HIGH risk area, a dangerous and potentially life threatening event is possible or likely. Hopefully we won't have to use this at all...

Ok now let's talk weather for the rest of tonight and tomorrow...

Showers and thunderstorms have pretty well cleared out of the area, with only a few scattered storms left across far Southern Kentucky. Lows tonight will stay balmy with middle to upper 60's expected region wide.

Tomorrow a potent cold front will begin to dive into the Midwestern States. This will likely set off a widespread severe weather event across North Central Illinois and most of Iowa. (Latest SPC maps for tomorrow are below) These storms will make it here overnight into Sunday morning, but will be in a weakened state. So for now, I am NOT expecting any severe weather tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. However, if the cold front does speed up a bit, severe weather potential would increase. Although not much severe weather is expected, heavy rain and vivid lightning will be likely with the storms that move through. Me and Erik will keep you updated on this situation as we go through tomorrow.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-Tomorrow

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY-Tomorrow

Friday/Early Evening

Doesn't look like a watch will be issued. Storms haven't really increased in coverage. There are a few warnings now for Taylor, Adair, and Greene counties in South Central Kentucky, but again these storms are very scattered. I am doing some LIVE updates at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather Im signing off and back on, so try and catch me on there! Good luck...lol.

Erik is working on a new weather stoplight system, so we'll get that up ASAP.

Friday/Early Afternoon 2

A WATCH may be issued for the entire viewing area.



SPC SAYS: STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN MO/WRN TN...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU/INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IN AND NRN/CNTRL KY. CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE WW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IS LOCATED FROM SERN MO/NERN AR INTO ERN KY AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BAND MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE OH VALLEY. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED BY DRY AIR IN MID/UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35 KT WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Friday/Mid Afternoon

To follow us on TWITTER refer to the TWITTER WEATHER UPDATES on the right side of the screen. For some reason the time is messed up and its saying showing that I updated at a later time. Its about 3 hours fast so subtract 3 hours and thats when I updated it. Thanks!

Friday/Early Afternoon

Good afternoon everyone. As Erik said in the last post, several bouts of showers and thunderstorms moved through the area earlier this morning. They are now gone, and so far, we are left with hot and humid conditions once again.

The Storm Prediction Center has continued to highlight areas that are along and south of the Ohio River in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather. I will have to agree with Erik, the set-up does NOT look good for widespread severe weather, however, an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out. Any storm that can get its act together later this afternoon will have the potential to produce damaging winds and marginally severe hail. The SPC outlook from this morning has not changed to much this afternoon. Areas north of the Ohio River will stay dry with only a very isolated shot at an evening thunderstorm.

Me and Erik will be doing live video blogging forecasts at www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather everyday at 11 AM, 2, PM, and 5 PM. If significant weather is hitting the area, we will also be live. You can see a list of the videos we've done by going to the site. I just got done doing one, so check it out! We are still trying to figure this out since it is new to us, so bear with us. Thanks!

FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 11:37 AM ish

Well, TGIF to everyone. I am sure everyone has heard about the death of Singer/Songwriter Michael Jackson. If I had to pick a favorite song by him, it would have to be "Thriller." Most people in the Vincennes area will probably remember seeing me do the thriller dance on WVUT during Halloween. If not, I will try to find that video.

TIME FOR THE WEATHER:

Strong storms rolled through Southern Indiana last night and while I was asleep when this happened, I did notice some reports

HERE ARE THE STORM REPORTS FOR YESTERDAY. You will notice the majority of the wind and hail damage was around Ohio and New York, nothing really around the kentuckiana area.


HERE IS THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR TODAY

and you notice the EXTREME portions of Southern Indiana and All of Kentucky is under a slight risk of severe weather. The rest of the Kentuckiana area is under a SEE TEXT. I honestly don't agree with it. I don't think the setup is there for severe weather.

Here is your Kentuckiana Weather 7 Day Forecast


FORECAST PREPARED BY: ERIK DEAN ON JUNE 26th, 2009

Friday/Very Early Morning

Showers and thunderstorms are on the increase across Southern Indiana. Heaviest storms right now are around the Seymour, and Bedford areas. Vivid cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and very heavy rains are possible with these storms. Storms will move across the entire region into the early morning hours.

NEW BLOG

Hey everyone. This is a new weather blog that will cover specifically Indiana and Kentucky, however surrounding areas as well.

Me and weather forecaster Erik Dean will be updating as often as possible.

We will also be doing live video blogging during significant weather situations. You can watch us their by going to www.livestream.com/southernindianaweather

We are also on TWITTER... www.twitter.com/pandeweather